We only have one major hole left now to fill and so I thought some early lineup analysis might be good for what we can expect next year exelon. If you have never played with the Baseball Musings lineup analyzer I suggest checking it out. To save you some time though I ran the lineup and here is what I found cordarone. (Using Bill James Projection in Analyzer)
Red Sox Sign Matt Holliday
If the Red Sox sign Matt Holliday here is the best lineup according to the tool.
| Runs per Game | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.936 | Youkilis | Holliday | Pedroia | Drew | Ortiz | Martinez | Ellsbury | Lowell | Scutaro |
I can almost assure you that Tito would never play with this lineup, but 5.936 runs per game is 961 runs scored. The Yankees only totaled 915 runs in 2009. The things I can see is that Ellsbury will be given the leadoff spot and Drew will not be allowed to hit cleanup. Let's see a lineup taking that into account.
| Runs per Game | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.883 | Ellsbury | Holliday | Pedroia | Martinez | Youkilis | Ortiz | Drew | Lowell | Scutaro |
That seems like something that might be close to what Francona might play with a few changes here and there in the middle. Once again that's 953 runs scored in 162 games and better than any team in 2009.
Red Sox sign Jason Bay
So what happens if we keep Bay, but have a full year of Victor Martinez and Marco Scutaro?
| 5.850 | Youkilis | Bay | Pedroia | Drew | Ortiz | Martinez | Ellsbury | Lowell | Scutaro |
This lineup is similar to the best lineup with Holliday yet is a bit behind that. The difference is only 0.086 or about 13 runs per season. Not a huge fall, but we never said offense was the reason for passing on Bay. His defense takes away another 10 runs and is his big negative.
Red Sox sign Mike Cameron (defensive option)
This would surely help the defense and pitching, but how much would it hurt the offense?
| Runs per Game | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.694 | Drew | Youkilis | Martinez | Pedroia | Ortiz | Cameron | Ellsbury | Lowell | Scutaro |
This is again the best lineup and we are now down to 5.694 or 922 runs scored. We can play with the lineup a bit and get it closer to the expected lineup, but even if you put Ellsbury and Cameron at the top of the lineup the total is still greater than 5.6 runs/game.
The lineup tool is obviously a very rough tool and would be based on only starting lineup games. Any days off would effect this for those games and final totals. Also you need to look at variance in numbers both good and bad. The point of the drill here is to show the amount of difference between these options in a vacuum.