David Ortiz is making the rounds again and much like last year he is saying the Red Sox must add another 30 homer hitter. Of course we know the Sox didn't add anyone, Jason Bay hit plenty of homers, and the Sox had the third most runs scored in baseball.
I appreciate players caring about making the team better; yet if Ortiz was on the Pirates and was complaining about the lineup, I would be more receptive. The Red Sox know what adds value to a team and it isn't just someone hitting 30 homers. There are quite a few hitters able to hit 30 homers in the free agent market, but what does it get you if you have no position for them and the rest of their skills are subpar?
Any suggestion involving the Red Sox adding a hitter forces the question: where could he play? Unless Ortiz is alluding to resigning Bay or adding Matt Holliday, where else could the team place this 30 homer guy? No legit 30 home run threat exists at shortstop, unless the Red Sox forfeit the entire Sea Dogs roster to Florida, and the Sox already have a huge logjam between 1st, 3rd, and DH. In order to add any player not named Hanley Ramirez in addition to a left fielder, other players need to leave town.
I'm sure this has to be about lineup protection, which has been the calling card for Ortiz since the Red Sox moved Manny Ramirez. We've yet to find any inherent evidence for lineup protection that changes a player's hitting ability. There is an effect on walk rates and slightly on strikeout rates, since pitchers are more likely to walk an unprotected hitter, but the effect of protection cannot magically increase slugging percentage, or a player's ability to make contact.
I know Ortiz has his heart in the right place, but making a call for one statistic is an empty request without considering the overall player; Jason Giambi could still hit 30 home runs, couldn't he?
The best thing Ortiz can do right now is show up ready and avoid a early season slump for the third year in a row. If Ortiz can post the .380 wOBA projected by Bill James then this missing production the media and fans complained about during the playoffs has arrived--and he's playing DH.
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Fair point. It is ironic that Ortiz has been begging for another big bat while struggling himself...
Until Lowell leaves, the Sox are forced to sign Bay/Holliday and hope that Youk/Bay/Ortiz/Lowell/Drew will offer enough offense.
Problem is... there aren't FA many options at 1B/3B in 2011...
Would it be smart to go after Carlos Pena (33) and move Youk to 3B??
I'd rather trade for A-Gon...
I guess my problem with Ortiz' whining is why do the Sox need more offense?
Is this all based of 3 postseason games where they simply were dominated by good pitching?
The 2003 Red Sox scored 961 runs that year. They failed. Did the 2004 club need more offense?
The 2005 Red Sox had Ortiz hitting 47 homeruns, and Manny hitting 45. The team scored 910 runs that season. They also got beat by good pitching in the LDS. 900+ runs a season is a ridiculous amount. Did they need more offense then?
They were 3rd in the AL in runs. With a full season of Victor Martinez, and hopefully a lack of 2 comical months by Ortiz, the offense will be even better, possibly even approaching the 900s again.
The key to this season, IMO, is Clay Buchholz. If we get a full season of his last 8-10 starts, that's what the team needs to succeed.
If there's any playoff blame, fingers should be pointed at our 1-2 punch on the mound not getting the job done. Not an offense that was 3rd in the AL with:
- 2 months of no DH
- 4 months of no catcher
- a full year of rotating FAIL at SS.
great post. i really can't add much b/c you hit the nail on the head.
look in the mirror.
i guess i wonder, what kind of player does he want to be remembered as? the guy who couldn't hit without manny??
To me the Sox just don't need all that much this offseason. A shortstop and a left fielder, that's pretty much it. Unless they can get Adrian Gonzalez, Holliday, or (shooting for the moon) Hanley I'm not going to get excited about lineup improvements. The flip side is that I won't be disappointed with a defensive SS or LFer because our lineup is already potent.
The rotation looks the same to me. I'd love to see Harden (or Halliday) in Boston but other than that I'm not going to get excited one way or the other. Going into Spring Training with Lester, Beckett, Buccholz, Dice-K, and Wake wouldn't be so bad.
That just leaves the bullpen which is pretty stacked with Pap and Bard and possibly Wagner.
Lee,
of course you are correct-with somewhat minor correction. Varitek was very good offensively in the first half of the season-.348/,478/.826 with 13 HRs. Even with a full year of VMart we will not get much better production from C than that. Overall, the offense is not likely to be (significantly) better next year regardless of who
plays LF. But that is not the point. If the run provention improves (there is a lot of room for this to happen) the Sox will be a better team for sure.
Buzzy,
Absolutely.
The amount of defensive holes can easily add a win or two if plugged up.
I'm excited for Clay this year. If he turns into what we all hoped he could be, and what we saw the end of 2009, that's the improvement that puts the team back over the top in the East.
Lee-I agree.
I wonder at this stage if signing Cameron on a short term contract is the best way to go. It would give us awesome outfield defense, while the infield defense will likely be better as well even without any major addition (I think Lowell will regain a bit of mobility and if he can split the defensive difference between his 08/09 numbers we will be much better there. Same for SS with Lowrie/Gonzo/?). Even our C defense will be somewhat better as Tek was horrible in the measurable and "non measurable" aspects of defense. Offensively I think Cameron+Martinez-Bay-Tek is not a very big downgrade, if a downgrade at all.
As for Clay I am excited too, but I am not convinced we will see a consistent Clay in '10. He still seems to have command issues with all of his major(FB,change, CB) pitches. His K rate was down a lot (seems not so worrying given his swinging strike percentage) and he gave up a lot of HRs (although 5 were in a single game). We all see the good signs. I think he can be a low
4's FIP pitcher next year, which will help greatly. From there I think he will simple improve at a steady clip.