In my last article valuing Josh Beckett in a potential extension for the Red Sox I got a suggestion from reader Mike Ketchen to look at his recent pitch selection as a sign he is learning how to be a better "pitcher". This is by changing his pitches and adding more use of a 2-seam fastball. Let's take a year by year look at his movement charts and see what has changed since 2007 (limitation of Pitch F/x)
He was pretty much a two pitch pitcher in 2007. His changeups are a bit hidden in this chart, but there wasn't many of them. He had some heat on the fastball as well, but no more than 1 mph faster than he threw in 2009. This was a great season for Beckett and surprising how simple his approach was. He did drop his fastball use though from 2006 when he threw 70% fastballs. Many thought this was why he struggled so much in 2006.
Then in 2008 he added a few more pitches, but not many times did he use them as his fastball rate went back to 67%.
You can see the fastball had less outliers in the far upper left region this year and the center was closer to the middle. Some of the fastballs near the cutter area could have been cutters, but as he was still working on the pitch they maybe misclassified. I don't see anything to make him considered much better and his K/BB stayed similar, but his GB% plummeted to 40%.
Something in his change caused more pitches to be hit in the air and more homers. He looks to have added the two seamer in 2009 as an answer to this problem as shown here.
Again the fastball, cutter and curve all hold similar, but his change and two seamer become more prominent. The bad news is his walks went up and brought his K/BB back down. This has to be a concern that he wasn't in control of all these pitches.
The opponent was still swinging nearly the same amount at pitches in and out of the zone, but there was enough change to make his walk rate go to 2.3. I think based on a lot of this his numbers should be better in 2009. I will be curious what adjustments he might make in 2010 though based on all these changes.
I can't see anything yet that says his changes are making him better, but they show he's making adjustments to deal with a future when his velocity and skills start to decline. He is often thought of as a stubborn pitcher with a continual desire to throw the fastball, but that is not the case. If he can perfect his two-seamer and changeup I think he could be just as good if not better than the fastball/curve pitcher of 2007.
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Troy,
Great piece and thanks for doing this. One intresting outliner from this conversation was the tale of two halfs Josh experinced with regard to K/BB. Pre all star break he was 3.14 and Post ASB he was 4.45. So I think his final K/BB can be a little misleading. Are there any considerable difference in first/second half Pitch/Fx? Thanks and all the best.
I have all that data, so I'll look at it this weekend. I think you have a point though that a gain that big in K/BB from the first half to the second points to something.