Our first offseason series will be a review of our expected players and results from each position. Once we complete the lineup we'll do a final review with a payroll prediction. Today we look at the first base position.
I don't think we can expect much more from Kevin Youkilis, but who wouldn't take a first basemen who has totaled 5.5 WAR for 2 straight years. He is going to be 31 next year, but should have several more seasons near this level of production.
The big question in 2009 was if Youkilis could match his power out put from the year before. He was a hitting at an ISO of .150 over his first 4 seasons, but in 2008 he reached a .257 mark. You had to expect regression in 2009, but it only dropped to .242, which is much better than his previous numbers.
He might not be the 40 homer guy they drooled over in Mark Teixeira, but a .300/.400/.550 line was actually better than Teixeira and quite a bit cheaper too. We'll discuss the impact Youkilis might have had at third base when we get there in this series, but for now let's admire his ability to top Teixeira in 2009 for offensive contribution.
In the field Youkilis is still one of the better first basemen, but has slowed a step when playing third base according to UZR. His UZR/150 in his career at first base is now 5.7, but has been over 7 twice in the last 3 years. With age he will regress, but he shouldn't become a detriment defensively unless some injury drops his range.
We've spent a lot of time here on Youkilis, but is it still possible they add a first baseman like Adrian Gonzalez and move him to third? It's possible, but a real long shot to move Mike Lowell after showing how slowed he has been from the hip injury.
Assuming they found a way to deal Lowell and dealt for Gonzalez they would be getting him after his best season so far. He totaled 40 homers playing in Petco park, so Fenway should be a cinch for him. I won't get into his skills to much right now, but the huge jump in walks this year only makes him more interesting.
Youkilis split his time fairly evenly between first and third base in 2009. Depending on his rotation in 2010 you can expect another 5 WAR season out of him in 2010. Unless they can add someone who is going to be at least a 4 WAR player it just doesn't seem worth it to move him to third full time.

