Our first offseason series will be a review of our expected players and results from each position. Once we complete the lineup we'll do a final review with a payroll prediction. First up is the catcher position.
In 2009 we saw the last starting season for Jason Varitek and my prediction is the Sox turn down the $5 million option and he picks up the player option for $3 million. It will be well understood this will be part time as a backup to Victor Martinez. He should be looking at 40-60 games played.
Last year Varitek was a 1.3 WAR player in 109 games. This not only means he was worth the $5 million dollars, but should be able to gaine $3 million dollar value in the part time job.
This leaves Victor Martinez as the starter with the ability to split time at first and DH. In the past 6 years he has topped 4.4 WAR every year except his injured season in 2008. His defense is neutral so the biggest factor is his positional adjustment.
While everyone is freaking out about the loss of offense in left field this gain at catcher over a full year is worth more than Jason Bay alone. Including George Kottaras and Dusty Brown the Red Sox totaled 1.9 WAR without counting the contribution from Martinez. If we take a conservative approach and predict a 1 WAR for Varitek and 4 WAR for Martinez we add more than 3 WAR, but if Martinez plays enough games at catcher he should push for 5 WAR and give the Sox an extra 4 WAR at catcher in 2010.
Defense is still in question behind the plate since both Martinez and Varitek couldn't stop David Ortiz from stealing second. There is some interest in 2009 draft pick Michael Thomas who is well known for his defense behind the plate and strong arm. His first season at Single-A wasn't very impressive, but let's see a full season in 2009 and then we can learn how quickly he might progress.
Looking at a lot of attempts to quantify catching defense you can see how little they value the position defensively. I think this is enough to stand that the Sox won't lose much by going with Martinez and Varitek. If Varitek was to deny the $3 million option then Kottaras is more than capable of replacing him at a discount.
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So you're not giving any consideration to the drop in performance that Vic saw this season batting as a catcher? Or are you counting on his off-days keeping him fresh?
It depends on what numbers you are looking at. He struck out more as a first basemen per at bat, but his better better average, OBP and SLG had large amounts to do with his BABIP at .348 at as first baseman and .288 as a catcher.
You could argue some of that is he is a better hitter at first with more rest for his knees, but not a full .060 swing in BABIP. In 2007 he had a .902 OPS at catcher and a .784 OPS at first base.
I contend he'll eventually be a full time first base/DH based on his defense and arm, but for 2010 he makes the most sense.