In 2008 Dustin Pedroia broke out with a 6.6 WAR season and won the AL MVP. This year was considered a "step back", but how much did he really regress this year?
R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLGThe difference from 2009 was minimal at best. His largest setback was in average, which can largely be blamed on a low BABIP. His BABIP in 2007 was .334 and in 2008 was .336. This year though his BABIP fell to .300, which was lower than even his career average at .316. All this points to a increase in his batting average, on base and slugging.
2008 118 17 83 20 .326 .376 .493
2009 115 15 72 20 .296 .371 .447
This is even better than I thought he would total. Last season I suggested his early numbers had a lot in common with Pete Rose and he looked like a potential 3,000 hit candidate much further down the line. Rose never totaled a BB% greater than 10% until his 7th season. This is only Pedroia's 3rd full season. The walk rate won't help him total 3,000 hits any quicker, but makes him much more valuable to the Sox.
We can't forget to mention the defensive value he adds. His UZR/150 in three seasons at second base stands at 6.7. The last two seasons though he has totaled 10+ for his UZR which equates to one win.
The numbers look good for Pedroia to post a better WAR in 2010 and his offensive numbers could be even better. The best is still ahead for Pedroia and the Sox should have no concern at second base for the foreseeable future.
I'll be curious to see what Pedey does in 2010.
This info suggests he's become a more complete batter, but his road/home splits are concerning.
He had 48 doubles this year, but 29 were at Fenway. He hit .318 at home and .273 on the road.
Bottom Line: Pedroia had dead even splits in 2008... I'd like to see him get back to that, more than I'd like to see him walk more, but I do enjoy 115 runs from the No.2 spot.
Good stuff!
Rob,
He had almost the exact same difference in BABIP home vs away (.318 to .277), and that's probably the biggest culprit for his splits.
If I could make any case of a concern form his park splits, it'd be his power numbers. Fenway is technically a very slight negative to neutral HR hitting park for right handers, but seriously inflates doubles. That doesn't quite explain the sheer lack of homeruns away from the Fens.
If his BABIP rebound away from Boston and his 2008 power stroke is the truer indicator of his talent, he should be able to achieve those high 400 slugging numbers on the road again. That .381 seems like an outlier.
It would be unreasonable to think Pedroia wouldn't "regress" this year. He went from AL Rookie of the Year to MVP. Was he supposed to be back to back MVP? We should all be safe in assuming Pedroia will hover around his 08,09 levels for the next few years.
Of course not Shane, the next logical progression would have been Pedroia acquiring Jeter's calm eyes and fistypumps! :)
I think what Troy was surprised by is that there was a lot of hand-wrining in the local media that Pedroia's 2009 season was a big set back. Really, his 09 was very similar to 08, with a couple BABIP hurdles.
Like you said, the guy just won an MVP, we can't just automatically assume he'll keep exponentially improving and become the 2010 Super MVP or something.