The Red Sox have already shown some interest in 21 year old recent Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman, but perhaps we should look a bit further than the drool inducing lefty with a 100+ MPH fastball. This should be enough to draw a lot of teams and scouts. There has even been talk he could reach the type of deal signed by Steven Strasburg.
When you look around you here about the strikeout totals (100 in 81.1 IP in Cuba, 79 in 74 IP in 2007-2008 Serie Nacional), but they are not often talking about his walks. That raises a red flag to me about his control.
I then found this article at Baseball Prospectus by Clay Davenport (members only link). In that link you can see all his numbers from Cuba and see he totaled an impressive K/9 of 10.0 in 66 games pitched, but a whopping 5.6 BB/9 in those games. That is not even a 2.0 K/BB. Comparing him to Jose Contreras he doesn't compare well. Contreras had a 3.63 K/BB in his last season in the Cuban National Series.
Chapman's walk rate has been improving, but was only 4.7 this season. The next trouble is finding how that compares to MLB and Clay suggests based on current players from Cuba that this league is similar to Low A level minors. That doesn't bod well for him as his translated stats are not very good and he should not be signing a deal near Strasburg based on anything he has shown so far.
As usual many GMs will flock for the 100 MPH fastball, but if he can't control it or limit the number of homers he allows he won't be worth the money. Theo should be concentrating on the left field question as well as answers at third base and DH for 2011.
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Stats don't lie, but they also don't tell the whole story. Chapman's only 21 unlike Contreras when he came to the U.S. and comparing him to Strasburg isn't fair because while Cuban baseball is Class A level its definitely stronger than NCAA baseball. Plus Chapman has pitched against tougher competition in more International tournaments than Strasberg. He'll get a higher contract than him because he's a free agent and not restricted by any draft rules and this is a very weak free agent class for pitchers particularly left handers. Not saying he will command the $60 million that some have reported, but i think it will be more than Strasberg and close if not more than Contreras because he's so much younger.
My point was Contreras had really good numbers in Cuba and still couldn't translate his numbers to MLB.
Control problems are huge with these guys throwing at 100 MPH and so are injuries (ie Zumaya). He was 5th in the Cuban league for walks and tied for the most wild pitches with (14).
Could he put it all together and control his stuff? Sure. Will he be worth anything near what he gets paid? Probably not.
By the way for those who don't read the BP link his estimated ERA based on the Low-A conversion is over 6.00.
ksniff,
While I think an observation should be made that Chapman ha sa world of potential ahead of him, much different than Contrearas' situation, his control issues are something teams shouldn't discredit.
Most pitchers have an even harder time reeling in their control as they advance through levels. Pushing a walk every other inning at a "Low A ball level", is a big black mark.
Actually I forgot to mention the translated walk rate is 6.1 per nine innings or 2 every three innings.
He's got a ton of time to grow, but I don't suggest any team pay him millions to spend the next 2-3 years in the minors trying to figure it out.
I think with potential talents like this, the team that wins does eventually have to overpay. We saw it happen with Contreras also.
Whether it's fiscally sound is one thing. If he spends 3 of his 4 years of a major league contract learning to even cut his walk rate to 3.0 in the minors, it doesn't seem too efficient. Especially since there's no way you'll save yourself time on a contract afterwards.
Just for the record, "ksniff" is Kevin Sniffen - Chapman's publicist.
I apologize for breaching protocol and not revealing my connection to Chapman. I wasn't trying to misdirect the conversation, but add some perspective to it.
Troy emailed me and asked to continue contributing from a PR/marketing perspective and I'm not sure what that can be.
To answer one of his email questions, my firm does not employ a statistician or even a team of statisticians. API who represents Chapman has a staff to evaluate talent, but I don't know the extent of their use of sabermetrics.
I think sabermetrics or statistical analysis has proven itself over the past decade to uncover some great players that most talent evaluators miss. The problem with Cuban players is that so little is known about them beyond what was seen in International competitions. I don't discredit the analysis people have done on Chapman's limited stats, but they are often not placed into perspective.
For instance, Chapman started pitching for Holguin when he was 17 years old after starting to pitch when he was 15. So he's been pitching against at least Low A to Double A level opponents when most American pitchers are facing high school and/or college batters.
I can't recall the Web site, but they compared Chapman's potential to Randy Johnson which can be fair considering their control issues. Johnson had his highest walk totals when he was 25-27 years old with 4.9, 6.2 and 6.8 walks per nine innings before reducing them to no higher than 3.8 per season.
Since he defected, Chapman has been training nearly every day and is working on his off speed pitches as well as improving the accuracy of his fast ball.
I belive he'll sign for more than Strasburg and COntreras because he's only 21 and the fact he wasn't subject to the draft. You can easily argue that Strasburg would make similar money to Chapman if they were both on the FA market. The teams rumored to be pursuing Chapman largely are in playoff contention every year so signing Chapman would be like a #1 draft pick for them since they rarely have a high draft pick. They see Chapman as long term potential that can be nurtured with the right coaching and attitude on his part.
Thanks for inviting me to participate and I'd be glad to answer any follow-up comments. And again I apologize for not revealing my relation to Chapman i my first post.
Kevin,
Thanks again for chiming in.
Your comparison to Randy Johnson's growing pains in 1989-1992 is quite interesting. I took a quick peek at Johnson's lines from those years and was amazed that his results in 1992 (his last year wit a BB9 over 4) he somehow had a 3.61 FIP while walking 6.16 batters per nine innings. Johnson's strikeouts hadn't even progressed to his world beating 12+ levels yet. The likelihood of another player being able to duplicate that is extremely remote. This no makes me want to grab every single FIP since 1988 and every BB/9 associated with it and see if any pitcher somehow coudl have duplicated this feat. I'm extremely curious what else must have been happening in Johnson's 1992 season. (Unfortunately batted ball data only goes back to 2002, so outside of BABIP, I can't go analyze his other luck-based outcomes like HR/FB or LOB%)
Now, unfortunately there's not enough batted ball and other data for me to try and piece together why he could somehow achieve such a great FIP while walking that many batters. While I would think it's presumptuous to assume Chapman could walk these many batters and still achieve the same results (how many pitchers have been able to walk 6+ per 9 and get away with it), it's quite the poignant comparison. Can players do this in a random single season sample? Sure. Whether it's sustainable is another. If Chapman cements himself as having no more control than what Red Sox fans are used to with Matsuzaka, we'll see how one successful season ultimately helped by a favorable BABIP, homerun rate, or other factors can match serious problem, like Matsuzaka showed again this year. We've said time and time again, that without Matsuzaka being able to control his walks, he'll eventually have the law of averages catch up to him. We didn't see this with Johnson since he quickly fixed the control problems he had.
Like you said, with such a small amount of data available for us to analyze, and even less scouting reports and past performances for the common fan to analyze, Chapman is a fascinating case. It's clear many GMs are holding him in a very high regard. Pitchers with huge strikeout potential and elite velocity can becomes legit aces if they combine that with impeccable control.
I guess the contract (and I think I agree with you on the value of the deal he will end up obtaining), will be the ultimate sign of faith that a organization believes he can establish major-league control.
We really appreciate all the information you've been able to provide us, especially for a viewpoint we in the blogosphere never really get to hear from.
Thanks again Kevin.
I know that scouting is not a specialty here and we rely on stats for the basis of our analysis. Especially a foreign player we have barely seen before. In hindsight I was probably to harsh with my assessment that he shouldn't get Strassburg money. He has age and talent still on his side and is a FA.
I would still worry about the deal and how much value you would get in the first 2-3 years, but walks are something he can gain control over and most pitchers do in their second or third MLB season if they become successful.
In regards to RJ in 1992 you can see his HR/9 took a huge dive to 0.56 from a normal range of 0.7-1.00. This is likely due to a huge drop in HR/FB% and a fluke.
There is no way Chapman could be successful if his BB/9 is over 5 let alone if it did result in a 6, but if he understands this would be a limitation and works on it like a Brian Bannister does he could be very successful.
While many people may dismiss Chapman's goal of becoming the best pitcher in the world, he is very aware of his weaknesses and very focused and driven to improve himself.
I think this will come across in his meetings with GM's (which started last Friday) and keep some of them in the process longer than many would expect.
Stay tuned and please feel free to follow up with any questions.
ksniffen at thehamiltongroup dot net
Why is his publicist on this site?
API sound like a really dirty company. Amazing, it took Chapman all of 3 weeks to jump ship.
You reap what you sew.