Angels & Demons: The Infield

Posted by Lee Perrault | 8:00 AM

We discussed the catchers on Thursday, and now it's time to move into the infield. While the Red Sox employ a season long rotation in order to rest Mike Lowell, and give spot starts to Varitek behind the plate, we'll be working under the assumption that Lowell is rested enough to be playing 3rd base full time in the playoffs. For the Angels, we're also going to consider the time Maicer Izturis has split in the entire infield. We'll weigh his contributions equally with the other middle infielders Kendrick and Aybar. For offensive positional comparisons, I'm going to categorize him as a SS.

Offense
First Base

                AVG  OBP  SLG  wOBA wRAA   WAR
Kevin Youkilis .305 .413 .551 .414 29.2 5.3
Kendry Morales .306 .356 .571 .383 27.7 4.2
Kendry Morales has had a magical breakout season for the Angels. While he's not the on-base machine that Youkilis is, he's been making his presence heard with his power, clubbing 34 homeruns to date. His newfound power has increased his strikeout totals from his career, but he's proving to be a reliable offensive source on a team whose first base contributions before the season were a huge question mark.

Youkilis is continuing to improve for the Red Sox, setting career highs in OBP, OPS, and wOBA this year, the latter two for the second year in a row. While Youkilis' strikeout rate has unfortunately increased, he's a legit offensive force at first base, and superior to Morales in every facet except for power this year. If not for that short holiday in the season, it's feasbile Youk could have easily caught Morales' homerun total, as his 16.3 HR/FB% isn't too far behind Kendry.

Second Base
                AVG  OBP  SLG  wOBA  wRAA   WAR
Dustin Pedroia .295 .368 .438 .355 15.6 5.0
Howie Kendrick .297 .340 .453 .347 5.4 2.3
Even though our reigning MVP's year has regressed a bit from his breakout 2008 campaign, Dustin is still putting up a very solid year. Pedroia's walk rate has jumped to 10.3% (previous high was 8.3% in 2007), and he's cut down his strikeouts to 7.2%; both are currently his best career values.

Kendrick's production is finally catching up to his hype, as his wOBA is also a career high. Still, Howie was supposed to be a "perennial batting title" talent, but a .292 batting average held up by a .344 BABIP isn't something I'd be comfortable with as an Angels fan if that was to be his claim to fame.

Shortstop
                 AVG  OBP  SLG  wOBA  wRAA  WAR
Alex Gonzales .285 .318 .438 .332 0.5 1.0
Erick Aybar .304 .347 .417 .334 2.5 3.3
Maicer Izturis .300 .359 .434 .348 4.2 2.7
Alex Gonzales was not re-acquired by the organization for this offense. This we are quite sure of. While Gonzales still has a little pop left in his bat, he's never been the prototypical "modern" Red Sox player focused towards getting on base.

Aybar and Izturis are lighter-hitting infielders, but both can easily eclipse Gonzales' output at the plate. It's unknown how the Angels will decide on their infielder's roles, but both players are no more than league average according to wOBA

Third Base
                 AVG  OBP  SLG  wOBA  wRAA  WAR
Chone Figgins .299 .398 .396 .360 18.9 6.1
Mike Lowell .290 .337 .474 .346 7.1 1.1
Mike Lowell's production has slowly been degrading since his stellar 2007 season. Lowell's 2009 is almost a complete mimic of his career line, mainly thanks to a second half resurgence, most likely by getting more regular rest for his balky hip. We should hope that Lowell is sufficiently rested enough to play regularly during the playoffs, especially if it means that Varitek stays on the bench.

Chone Figgins is having another spectacular year for the Angels, and has steadily and stealthly evolved into a more complete and successful player each season. Chone's walk rate has been improving each year, up to a career high of 14.2% this year. While he's never had much power in his bat (a career ISO of .097), when a player with elite speed realizes he cannot steal first base, and changes his approach to do whatever it takes to improve his on base percentage, he'll end up being an excellent player. A certain Red Sox centerfielder should take notice.

Strictly using wOBA, the Red Sox and Angels split the positions within the infield. The X-factor for both team will be Boston's production at 3rd versus the Angels production at 2nd. While Lowell's OBP is still underwhelming, he should just barely outpace Kendrick in this regard.

Defense
Unfortunately for the Red Sox, the Angels have stellar defensive infielders.

At their expected starting positions, Figgins, Kendrick, Aybar, and Morales all have positive UZR/150 ratings. Figgins is an elite defensive third basemen, as his 13.1 UZR/150 ranks 3rd in MLB, 2nd in the AL. Aybar, Kendrick, and Morales are all well above average, and while Morales' 3.8 is the lowest of the bunch, but still good enough to make him #1 of all players who've logged at least 120 games at first base.

Alex Gonzales was specifically brought in to help the Sox' defensive woes at shortstop, and has lived up to his billing. Gonzales brings his 7.0 UZR/150 to short, and it helped offset Mike Lowell's now dreadful range at third base. Lowell is currently dead last in all of baseball for qualified players, posting a -10.2 UZR/150 for the season. To put that in perspective, Lowell's defense has cost the Red Sox twice the amount of runs that he's contributed with his bat, which is why he's simply been a 1 WAR player this year.

The right side of the infield as been much better, with Dustin Pedroia leading all AL second basemen with a 9.4 UZR/150, and Youkilis contributing a 7.1 of his own. Youkilis had had problems translating his defensive wizardry at first base across to the hot corner, contributing a -7.4 UZR/150 when he's spent time at third base. Even with Lowell's atrocious defense, the Red Sox best lineup still has him in the lineup, if only to keep Varitek out of it.

Overall, the Red Sox should have a mild advantage at the plate, while the Angels should have a mild advantage in the field, purely because all 4 players are above average to elite defenders. In such a short series, I tend to side with the defense, as even the smallest defensive mishap can be the difference between the ALCS and an mid-October tee time.

Catching Matchup
Outfield and DH Matchup
Starting Pitching Matchup
Bullpen Matchup

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