You've heard the claims before. When it's playoff time, one team has a significant advantage over their opponent if they can take a lead past inning X. In 1996, it was widely regarded that if you couldn't get ahead of the Yankees before the 8th inning, there was no chance of a team rallying versus the combination of Rivera in the 8th, and Wetteland in the 9th.
With the amount of off days strewn throughout a playoff series, bullpens become increasingly important. Your best 3 bullpen arms can be a factor in almost every contest, since no series ever schedules 3 straight days with a matchup (barring any odd weather related mishaps).
Before the weekend begins, let's take a spin through the most significant bullpen arms of each team (most teams will only carry 10 pitchers into the Division Series)
Angels
As a team, the Angels bullpen ranks 20th in K/9 (7.29), 16th in BB/9 (3.88), 17th in K/BB (1.88), 9th in GB% (45.5%) and 20th in FIP (4.36). At best, an average bullpen that struggles keeping the ball out of play, but at least induces an above average number of ground balls, which helps keep the home run as scarce as possible.
Individually, the 7 most used relievers in the bullpen are the following lot:
Name ERA IP K/9 BB/9 K/BB FIP
Darren Oliver 2.82 67 8.19 2.82 2.9 3.4
Jason Bulger 3.38 64 9 4.08 2.21 3.92
Brian Fuentes 4.05 53.1 7.59 3.88 1.96 4.44
Kevin Jepsen 4.73 53.1 7.93 3.21 2.47 2.88
Matt Palmer 2.86 44 4.5 4.5 1 4.84
Jose Arredondo 5.73 44 9.41 4.09 2.3 4.14
Justin Speier 5.18 40 8.78 3.38 2.6 4.84
Notice that Scot Shields isn't included, as his contributions have finally been reduced after tailing off the past few years.
Darren Oliver and Kevin Jepsen have been the two bright spots, both with above average FIPs (3.4 and 2.88, respectively) and acceptable control rates.
Bulger, Fuentes, Palmer, and Arredondo have all struggled with their control this season, and any wildness would be quickly exposed by the Red Sox and their superb on base skills in the middle of the order (Pedroia, Martinez, Youk, Ortiz, Bay).
The Angels would be wise to keep Fuentes out of critical situations, and continue to reply on Jepsen, Oliver, and Bulger in the last 3 innings.
Red Sox
As a team, the Red Sox bullpen ranks 4th in K/9 (8.27), 20th in BB/9 (4.06), 10th in K/BB (2.06), 30th in GB% (35.5%) and 13th in FIP (4.19). While the Red Sox are above average in strikeouts, their league-worst ground ball rate leads to unnecessary home runs, and they've been plagued by control problems as well.
Individually, the 6 most used relievers(plus Billy Wagner) in the bullpen are the following lot:
Name ERA IP K/9 BB/9 K/BB FIP
Ramon Ramirez 2.93 67.2 6.65 4.12 1.61 4.51
Jonathan Papelbon 1.91 66 10.09 3.27 3.08 3.11
Hideki Okajima 3.39 61 7.82 3.1 2.52 4.19
Manny Delcarmen 4.53 59.2 6.64 5.13 1.29 4.62
Takashi Saito 2.47 54.2 8.56 4.12 2.08 4.29
Daniel Bard 3.8 47.1 11.6 3.99 2.9 3.34
Billy Wagner 2.25 12 14.25 5.25 2.71 3.01
What's promising about the Red Sox bullpen isn't so much contained in their combined numbers(including a large contribution from Masterson) but how their top-tier, frequently used relievers should stack up more favorably than the Angels. Remember, in a 5 game set, it's feasible that Papelbon, Bard, and Okajima could pitch each game.
Papelbon, Bard, and Wagner all have FIPs close to 3.0 (even though Wagner's is only through 12 IP). All three of them have very respectable K/BB ratios, and only Wagner's walk ratio looks a bit out of control (again, due ot the 12 IP, I'm guessing).
If the Red Sox can prevent any high-leverage situations from falling into Delcarmen's or Ramirez's lap, they should be extremely solid by combining Okajima, Wagner, and Bard in the 7th and 8th innings before giving way to Papelbon.
I'm still a little concerned with Okajima, whose K/BB and GB% have regressed each year in the majors. I wouldn't be surprised to see Oki and Wagner split the 7th/left handed duties while letting Bard completely take hold on the 8th inning. Papelbon's FIP looks a tad high than it should be, and his extremely low groundball rate will make the probability for a late home run against more possible than before.While not substantial, the Red Sox team relief numbers are spoiled a bit by Masterson's pedestrian ratios this year. The bullpen edge to the Red Sox is still well supported, especially for the final two innings. Both Papelbon and Bard have been, and should be more competent than their respective counterparts.
Entering the 7th or 8th with a lead is paramount to pulling out tough wins in the postseason; thankfully for the Red Sox, their options for these two innings are very strong, and stronger than their competition.
It's close, but the Red Sox have the edge in the bullpen.
Catching Matchup
Infield Matchup
Outfield and DH Matchup
Starting Pitching Matchup