With September in full swing, the Red Sox need to identify their #4 starter, one who can hopefully provide a solid stretch run and long playoff appearance. The rotation's first two spots are spoken for and Clay Buchholz has started to develop the control many thought he would have after his excellent minor league career. This leaves us a puddle of middling starters: Tim Wakefield, Paul Byrd, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Junichi Tazawa.

1 and 1a
The comparison between Jon Lester and Josh Beckett is fairly indistinguishable. I am going to continue to ignore Beckett's unlikely spike in homeruns, as they still seem to be a sample size fluke.

The two pitchers have extremely close K/BB numbers around 3.50, but Lester leads far and away in K/9 with a 10.16, which ranks second in the AL behind Justin Verlander and third in baseball including Tim Lincecum. Based on this I would say Lester should be 1 to Beckett's 1a, but it shouldn't matter in a short series; both of them are elite.

Third place
Over the Monster had an article the other day looking at the effect Victor Martinez has had since taking over as Buchholz catcher. However, the data associated with that particular battery is not favorable. The pair compiled a 2-2 record with a 4.75 ERA and only a 1.65 K/BB. Interestingly enough, their last 5 pairings have shown some improvement. I don't hold to much value to the effect of Martinez somehow getting Clay to reduce his walk rate.

His K/BB in the last 5 starts has been 3.00. Pretty solid for a #3.

September will be showcase time for Clay. If his control continues to improve, this should all but solidify him as the number three heading down the stretch.

Who's Next?
Let's start with the Old Man and his Knuckleball. We can expect the Red Sox wouldn't have used him as a number 4 in the playoffs anyway. The Red Sox understand the boom or bust result of the knuckleball and that while it is viable over the course of an entire season(mainly for letting Wakefield take one for the team and churn out innings for you), its volatility is dangerous during a short series.

Perhaps I should have saved the label old man for Byrd because he shouldn't even be the number 5 on this team, so much as mentioned in the playoff rotation. While his comeback story is a great personal achievement, it shouldn't come at the team's expense. Byrd currently holds a 0.83 K/BB and a FIP of 4.65 (HR/FB is extremely low at 4%). His xFIP is 6.59 it's frightening as to what he could do to the Red Sox playoff chances.


Matsuzaka and Tazawa
This leaves the Japanese imports fighting for the number 4 spot. I am not a fan of Matsuzaka and I am only slightly encouraged by his 7:1 K:BB start in Single-A this week. He showed great control numbers in Japan, but since his arrival in Boston he has been unable to shake the free pass, walking between 4 and 5 batters every 9 innings. This is an atrocious amount, that is normally the death knell of a pitcher's effectiveness. He should be making one start next week and perhaps 3-4 more before the playoffs. Not a lot of time to turn your season around.

Tazawa came aboard this season and showed solid numbers at Double-A with a 3.38 K/BB before his promotion to Triple-A. He only threw 11.1 innings in Triple-A, yet had a concerning drop in strikeouts. After reaching the majors his strikeout rate was still lower than expected, and even worse, his walks have risen considerably.

Junichi went from a 2.39 BB/9 in Double-A to a 3.20 in the majors. His K/BB currently stands at 1.44 with a dismal groundball rate of only 24.5%. He is still young and has much to learn, and should probably have at least one more AAA year of seasoning.

Matsuzaka will be the Number 4
Back in June I had assumed this spot would belong to John Smoltz, but the Sox became impatient and gave up on their sabermetrical analysis. The good news is even if Matsuzaka struggles with walks his K/BB is as good as any of these aforementioned possible candidates for this spot, and he at least can strikeout 8 batters or more every 9 innings.

Until Daisuke gets his walks under control, we'll never see the pitcher he was supposed to be. Maybe he'll finally surprises us. This would be the best time for a revival.

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