Casey Kelly was the 30th overall pick in the 2008 draft by the Boston Red Sox. He fell in the draft since it was largely thought he would head to the University of Tennesse to play football. The Red Sox agreed to let him play SS and pitcher for the 2009 season to get him to sign. This year was a test that would let him spend the first half at pitcher and the second half at short stop.

So far that test has gone to the decision that he would be a much better pitching prospect than a short stop. Kelly prefers to play everyday and wants to be a short stop, but this offseason the Red Sox will have to address with Kelly what his best track to the majors is.

Kelly was the Red Sox sixth ranked prospect according to Baseball Prospectus coming into the season. He was seen as a B- level pitcher and a C level pitcher by Minor League Ball. Obviously the scouting sees him as a pitcher, but can the 2009 test convince Kelly?

First Half - Pitcher
Kelly is not a strikeout expert, but has very good control. He made 9 starts at A ball and 8 starts at advanced A ball. His record and ERA took a fall at advanced A ball, but his control numbers still look good.

       W  L  ERA   K/9   BB/9  K/BB  FIP
A      6  1  1.12  7.26  1.68  4.33  2.14
A-Adv  1  4  3.09  6.75  1.35  5.00  3.33

We can't get to far ahead here since this is not even Double-A yet, but this is still a skill that gets over looked for the huge K/9 guys. When we talk about pitchers like this (Kevin Slowey) we always need to look at GB% to see who will be good and who will be great.

       GB%
A      40.7%
A-Adv  53.6%

Tough to tell where this number will go, but the 53% at high A ball is very encouraging. I like to compare the three elite K/BB guys with different groundball rates to show the change. Roy Halladay is the high 50% to 60% guy resulting in great ERA numbers. Cliff Lee is the solid 40-45% guy with solid numbers and a bit of luck gives great numbers. Lastly is Kevin Slowey who has horrible ground ball rates at 35% and results in fighting to stay better than average.

We need to see the skills at Double-A next year to further see how his skills transfer to different levels, but very encouraging signs so far. He's going to need to really impress at shortstop to make him a better option there.

Second Half - Shortstop
Kelly didn't get any time in high A ball at shortstop this year. He got 151 plate appearances at A ball and the results don't show much more than the scouts were projecting.

       K%     BB%    BABIP  wOBA  Speed  AVG   OBP   SLG
A      29.1%  10.7%  .309   .289  3.8    .224  .305  .313

That wOBA is far below league average and while the walk rate is solid he strikes out to much. He didn't show signs of hitting for power or average and his speed rating is pretty average. He had no steals at this level and has only gotten 2 so far since being drafted. That C rating he received from Minor League Ball as a shortstop this year may drop in 2010.

There isn't much here to debate against his move to pitching full time other than a potential to limit innings. Unless the Red Sox agreed in a contract negotiation to give him anymore time at shortstop past 2009 it's likely he won't be spending any more time there. He still has a few seasons to work things out as late 2011 is his current ETA, but it's unlikely any more time will be at shortstop.

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